Critical Drought Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Based On Total Probability Theorem-Coupled Frequency Analysis

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dc.authorid311752en_US
dc.authorid11607en_US
dc.authorid38734en_US
dc.contributor.authorÇavuş, Yonca
dc.contributor.authorAksoy, Hafzullah
dc.contributor.authorÇetin, Mahmut
dc.contributor.authorEriş, Ebru
dc.contributor.authorBurgan, Halil İbrahim
dc.contributor.authorYıldırım, Işılsu
dc.contributor.authorSivapalan, Murugesu
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-22T08:49:15Z
dc.date.available2021-12-22T08:49:15Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.departmentİstanbul Beykent Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractA methodology using the standardised precipitation index is proposed to develop critical drought intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. We define dry periods within which we recognise droughts of different durations. The most severe drought for each drought duration in each year is called the critical drought. The total probability theorem-coupled frequency analysis is used to determine the bestfit probability distribution function of drought severity, which is then converted to intensity. The generalised extreme value probability distribution function is found to best fit the critical drought severity. The methodology is implemented using monthly precipitation data for a meteorological station in Turkey. The critical drought intensity decreases linearly with increasing drought duration, whereas the return period increases exponentially when the drought becomes more severe. The site-specific IDF curves furnished with an empirical relationship between the intensity and return period allow one to characterise the drought not by an index-based intensity but by its return period. This kind of presentation is physically easier to nderstand, in particular for stakeholders and decision makers in practice.en_US
dc.identifier.citationHydrologıcal scıences journal 2021, vol. 66, no. 8, 1337–1358en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/02626667.2021.1934473
dc.identifier.issn1308-5123
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85109637179en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/Aen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1934473
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000669819700001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/Aen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherInternational Association of Hydrological Sciences [Associate Organisation]en_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.subjectCritical droughten_US
dc.subjectDrought intensity-duration-frequency curveen_US
dc.subjectDrought return perioden_US
dc.subjectFrequency analysisen_US
dc.subjectStandardised precipitation indexen_US
dc.subjectTotal probability theoremen_US
dc.titleCritical Drought Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Based On Total Probability Theorem-Coupled Frequency Analysisen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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