The role of forecasting on bullwhip effect for E-SCM applications

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dc.contributor.authorBayraktar, Erkan
dc.contributor.authorKoh, S. C. Lenny
dc.contributor.authorGunasekaran, A.
dc.contributor.authorSari, Kazim
dc.contributor.authorTatoglu, Ekrem
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-13T10:34:57Z
dc.date.available2024-03-13T10:34:57Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.departmentİstanbul Beykent Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractThe bullwhip effect represents the information distortion in customer demand between orders to supplier and sales to the buyer. Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect for electronic supply chain management (E-SCM) applications. A simulation model is developed to experiment the different scenarios of selecting right parameters for the exponential smoothing forecasting technique. It is found that longer lead times and poor selection of forecasting model parameters lead to strong bullwhip effect in E-SCM. In contrast, increased seasonality helps to reduce the bullwhip effect. The most significant managerial implication of this study lies in the need to reduce lead times along the E-supply chain to mitigate the bullwhip effect. While high seasonality would reduce the forecast accuracy, it has a positive influence on the reduction of bullwhip effect. E-SCM managers are therefore strongly suggested to utilize exponential smoothing by selecting lower values for alpha and beta and a mid-value for gamma to keep the bullwhip ratio low, while at the same time to increase forecast accuracy. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ijpe.2007.03.024
dc.identifier.endpage204en_US
dc.identifier.issn0925-5273
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-41549154121en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.startpage193en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2007.03.024
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12662/4176
dc.identifier.volume113en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000255583000014en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Science Bven_US
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal Of Production Economicsen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectbullwhip effecten_US
dc.subjectforecastingen_US
dc.subjectexponential smoothingen_US
dc.subjectE-SCMen_US
dc.titleThe role of forecasting on bullwhip effect for E-SCM applicationsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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