The role of forecasting on bullwhip effect for E-SCM applications
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2008
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Elsevier Science Bv
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
The bullwhip effect represents the information distortion in customer demand between orders to supplier and sales to the buyer. Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect for electronic supply chain management (E-SCM) applications. A simulation model is developed to experiment the different scenarios of selecting right parameters for the exponential smoothing forecasting technique. It is found that longer lead times and poor selection of forecasting model parameters lead to strong bullwhip effect in E-SCM. In contrast, increased seasonality helps to reduce the bullwhip effect. The most significant managerial implication of this study lies in the need to reduce lead times along the E-supply chain to mitigate the bullwhip effect. While high seasonality would reduce the forecast accuracy, it has a positive influence on the reduction of bullwhip effect. E-SCM managers are therefore strongly suggested to utilize exponential smoothing by selecting lower values for alpha and beta and a mid-value for gamma to keep the bullwhip ratio low, while at the same time to increase forecast accuracy. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
bullwhip effect, forecasting, exponential smoothing, E-SCM
Kaynak
International Journal Of Production Economics
WoS Q Değeri
Q1
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
113
Sayı
1
