Development of an aftershock occurrence model calibrated for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods

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dc.contributor.authorMuderrisoglu, Ziya
dc.contributor.authorYazgan, Ufuk
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-13T10:30:51Z
dc.date.available2024-03-13T10:30:51Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentİstanbul Beykent Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents the calibration of Omori's aftershock occurrence rate model for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods. Aftershock occurrence rate models are used for estimating the probability of an aftershock that exceeds a specific magnitude threshold within a time interval after the mainshock. Critical decisions on the post-earthquake safety of structures directly depend on the aftershock hazard estimated using the occurrence model. It is customary to calibrate models in a region-specific manner. These models depend on rate parameters (a, b, c and p) related to the seismicity characteristics of the investigated region. In this study, the available well-recorded aftershock sequences for a set of M-w >= 5.9 mainshock events that were observed in Turkey until 2012 are considered to develop the aftershock occurrence model. Mean estimates of the model parameters identified for Turkey are a = -1.90, b = 1.11, c = 0.05 and p = 1.20. Based on the developed model, aftershock likelihoods are computed for a range of diff erent time intervals and mainshock magnitudes. Also, the sensitivity of aftershock probabilities to the model parameters is investigated. Aftershock occurrence probabilities estimated using the model are expected to be useful for post-earthquake safety evaluations in Turkey.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipScientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) [213M454]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipSupported by: Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) with Grant No. 213M454en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11803-020-0553-2
dc.identifier.endpage160en_US
dc.identifier.issn1671-3664
dc.identifier.issn1993-503X
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85077882163en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2en_US
dc.identifier.startpage149en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11803-020-0553-2
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12662/3565
dc.identifier.volume19en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000520176100010en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.ispartofEarthquake Engineering And Engineering Vibrationen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectaftershock occurrence modelen_US
dc.subjectaftershock likelihoodsen_US
dc.subjectrate parametersen_US
dc.subjectaftershock hazarden_US
dc.titleDevelopment of an aftershock occurrence model calibrated for Turkey and the resulting likelihoodsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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