Drought intensity-duration-frequency curves based on deficit in precipitation and streamflow for water resources management

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dc.contributor.authorCavus, Yonca
dc.contributor.authorStahl, Kerstin
dc.contributor.authorAksoy, Hafzullah
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-13T10:33:24Z
dc.date.available2024-03-13T10:33:24Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentİstanbul Beykent Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractDrought estimates in terms of physically measurable variables such as precipitation deficit or streamflow deficit are key knowledge for an effective water management. How these deficits vary with the drought event severity indicated by commonly used standardized indices is often unclear. Drought severity calculated from the drought index does not necessarily correspond to the same amount of deficit in precipitation or streamflow at different regions, and it is different for each month in the same region. We investigate drought to remove this disadvantage of the index-based drought intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and develop IDF curves in terms of the associated deficit. In order to study the variation of deficits, we use the link between precipitation and streamflow and the associated indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). More specifically, the analysis relies on frequency analysis combined with the total probability theorem applied to the critical drought severity. The critical drought has varying durations, and it is extracted from dry periods. IDF curves in terms of precipitation and streamflow deficits for the most severe drought of each drought duration in each year are then subject to comparison of statistical characteristics of droughts for different return periods. Precipitation and streamflow data from two catchments, the Seyhan River (Turkiye) and the Kocher River (Germany), provide examples for two climatically and hydrologically different cases. A comparison of the two cases allows a similar method to be tested in different hydrological conditions. We found that precipitation and streamflow deficits vary systematically, reflecting seasonality and the magnitude of precipitation and streamflow characteristics of the catchments. Deficits change from one month to another at a given station. Higher precipitation deficits were observed in winter months compared to summer months. Additionally, we assessed observed past major droughts experienced in both catchments on the IDF curves, which show that the major droughts have return periods at the order of 100 years at short durations. This coincides with the observation in the catchments and shows the applicability of the IDF curves. The IDF curves can be considered a tool for using in a range of specific activities of agriculture, ecology, industry, energy and water supply, etc. This is particularly important to end users and decision-makers to act against the drought quickly and precisely in a more physically understandable manner.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipDeutscher Akademischer Austauschdiensten_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe thank all data-providing organizations named in the Data availability section.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/hess-27-3427-2023
dc.identifier.endpage3445en_US
dc.identifier.issn1027-5606
dc.identifier.issn1607-7938
dc.identifier.issue18en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85175194526en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.startpage3427en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3427-2023
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12662/3937
dc.identifier.volume27en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001168949400001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/Aen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherCopernicus Gesellschaft Mbhen_US
dc.relation.ispartofHydrology And Earth System Sciencesen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.titleDrought intensity-duration-frequency curves based on deficit in precipitation and streamflow for water resources managementen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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