Estimating time-Varying conditional correlations between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions volume

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There has been extensive research on the historical relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions. Presently, it can be assumed that the high carbon dioxide emissions volume in the world is the result of economic growth. However, over the last couple of decades, increasing awareness about environmental problems, which has resulted from the new realities of the world such as climate change, emphasises the importance of a low-carbon economy. Under these new circumstances that the world faces, many countries, especially in the developed world, have already started to work for the transition to a low-carbon economy. Hence, in some countries, carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions have started to decelerate despite accelerating economic growth. In this paper, the , dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) model is used to estimate time-varying conditional correlations between economic growth and carbon dioxide emssions in the United States of America (USA) between 1800 and 2006. The empirical results indicate that two variables are positively and highly correlated until the 1970's. The results also indicate that volatility in correlation over the period 1800-1970 is low. The results further indicate that the correlation between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions volume is highly volatile during the period 1970-2006. There seems to be a downward trend in correlation between two variables in this period.


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Carbon dioxide emissions, Conditional correlation, Economic growth, Low-carbon economy, Multivariate garch


Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology

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