Traces of Gambling Tendencies in Equity Market Investments

Küçük Resim Yok



Dergi Başlığı

Dergi ISSN

Cilt Başlığı


Erişim Hakkı



Investors may prefer to allocate funds to stock markets via fundamental analysis or technical analysis. They may want to base their decisions on some form of quantitative analysis. However, sometimes the assumption that investors are rational may not hold for equity markets for various reasons. Equity markets provide the fun and excitement for risk takers. Gamblers may voluntarily take part in financial markets with differing rationales and they may have significant impact on trading volumes of certain markets. This study aims to provide evidence for the presence of gambling in the equity markets mainly, in an IPO Index, watch list market and the stock market. To serve this purpose, gamblers impact on the trading volume of the stock market is studied. A cointegration analysis is performed to deny any long run relation of trading volume of BIST 100 index with various independent variables so that the lottery like, short term investment intentions of gamblers become clearer. Similarly, a multi regression is run to point out the substitution effect between total gambling revenues and trading volume of BIST 100 index. A statistically significant t-value of -2,70, shows the inverse relationship and favors substitution effect between other gambling instruments and stock market. The result also discredits discussions about increasing gambling activities helping markets to improve. Watch list market is also analyzed in terms of market capitalization. What variables drive this market is questioned in this paper and suspected determinants such as volume of the main market BIST 100, USD/TRY parity, level of employment, results of Economic outlook survey conducted by the Central Bank of Turkey and yield of 10-year treasury bonds are found to be statistically insignificant on the change in the watch list market. Thus, the market is found to be another instrument for gamblers by a regression analysis.


Anahtar Kelimeler


Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics

WoS Q Değeri

Scopus Q Değeri