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Öğe The Asymmetric Effects of the Interest Rate on the Bitcoin Price(Charles Univ-Prague, 2023) Kose, Nezir; Unal, EmreThe news about the US interest rate is expected to cause significant changes in cryptocurrency markets in the 2020s. The asymmetric effects of the interest rate on the Bitcoin price were analyzed by using a SVAR model for the monthly period between January 2012 and October 2022. The selected variables are the VIX, interest rate spread, positive and negative real interest rates, DXY, the gold price, and the oil price. According to the variance decomposition, negative real interest rate shocks created a stronger influence than positive real interest rate shocks on the Bitcoin price. The negative real interest rate shocks became the most explanatory indicator over the period. Impulse response functions indicated that the response of the Bitcoin price to the positive interest rate was insignificant. However, its response to the negative real interest rate became negative and significant only during the mid-term. As a consequence, the negative real interest rate significantly influences the Bitcoin price. The results provide important implications for policymakers, portfolio managers, and investors.Öğe The Bitcoin price and Bitcoin price uncertainty: Evidence of Bitcoin price volatility(Wiley, 2024) Kose, Nezir; Yildirim, Hakan; Unal, Emre; Lin, BoqiangThis study examines the Bitcoin price by taking into account global factors, including the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Market Volatility Index (VIX), the US dollar index, the gold price, the oil price, and Bitcoin price volatility. The analysis is conducted using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The variance decomposition findings revealed that the influence of the VIX on the Bitcoin price was initially restricted, but progressively intensified over time. Among the indicators, Bitcoin price volatility had the highest explanatory share in both daily and weekly data analysis. The impulse response functions demonstrated a statistically significant inverse relationship between the VIX and the Bitcoin price. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that the Bitcoin price was mostly impacted by its own volatility. This implies that investing in Bitcoin requires a certain level of risk-taking.Öğe Brexit's effects on energy inflation in the UK(Taylor & Francis Inc, 2025) Kose, Nezir; Unal, EmreThis study examined the effects of the Brexit referendum and the UK's official withdrawal from the EU on energy inflation by employing a difference-in-differences methodology to evaluate the implications of the policy change in the country. The study also takes into account the primary member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, and the Netherlands. This study demonstrated that the referendum held on 23 June 2016 and the subsequent official decision to leave the EU on 31 January 2020 did not have a significant effect on overall inflation. However, it did have a significant and positive impact on inflation rates in the energy and transport. Furthermore, the formal institutional shift had a more pronounced impact on energy inflation in comparison to the referendum. This highlights that the government's decision to exit the EU intensified the issue of inflation in the energy sector and its related transport domain inside the nation. This indicates that a nation departing from the EU may have inflationary issues, particularly in the sectors of energy and transportation. The findings indicate that implementing sustainable energy projects is a recommended approach to mitigate the substantial impact of Brexit on energy costs and the transportation sector in the UK.Öğe Causal relationships between cryptocurrencies: the effects of sampling interval and sample size(Walter De Gruyter Gmbh, 2023) Kose, Nezir; Unal, EmreFor this paper, the relationship between seventeen popular cryptocurrencies was analyzed by multivariate Granger causality tests and simple linear regression, using data spanning the period 1 September 2020 to 8 December 2021. The novelty of this work is that it studies the effects of sampling interval and sample size in cryptocurrency markets, which can yield significantly different results. Minute-by-minute, hourly and daily data were collected to examine the Granger causality relationship between cryptocurrencies. It was found that all the currencies demonstrated a significant causality relationship when high frequency (such as minute-by-minute) data was used, in contrast to hourly and daily data. The bigger the sample size, the higher the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis. Hence, the null hypothesis for the Granger causality test can be rejected for minute-by-minute time series data because of too large a sample size. Granger causality test results for hourly and daily data indicated that Bitcoin, Ethereum Classic, and Neo were leading indicators among the cryptocurrencies included in the research. In addition, according to simple linear regression analysis, the short term marginal effect of Bitcoin plays an important role by creating significant impacts on other cryptocurrencies.Öğe The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2021) Kose, Nezir; Unal, EmreThe effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey were analyzed via a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, using monthly data covering the period between March 1988 and August 2019. The result of variance decomposition indicates that the effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation were limited in the early months but increased over the subsequent months. The labor cost indicates the same -its effect on inflation was limited in the early months but became more significant later. The exchange rate constituted the largest source of changes in inflation, and its impact only slightly decreased in the latter part of the period. According to the result of impulse response functions, the responses of the oil price and exchange rate to inflation were significant in the early months. The response of inflation to labor cost became significant after a few months. The result of this research indicates that following stable economic policies, considering both monetary policy and fiscal policy, provides important dynamics for the control of inflation. Nevertheless, the oil price is an external factor for which alternative ways need to be found in order to reduce its inflationary effect. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Öğe The impact of the oil price on mineable and non-mineable cryptocurrencies(Taylor & Francis Inc, 2023) Unal, Emre; Kose, NezirThe digital world has become an inevitable part of daily life. With cryptocurrencies, a new investment opportunity has emerged around the globe. Extending digital life increases the energy demand. These new assets consume a considerable amount of energy resources. The mining process in particular can be significantly affected by energy prices. The purpose of this work is to reveal the impact of the oil price on mineable and non-mineable cryptocurrencies which would provide insight for policymakers, investors, miners, and portfolio managers. This research utilized a panel cointegration model and panel Granger causality tests to the daily data collected between May 11, 2021 and June 23, 2022. 15 mineable and 19 non-mineable cryptocurrencies were selected for the study. Other variables include the oil price, the VIX, and the gold price. The research indicated that there is a negative correlation between the oil price and cryptocurrencies. The VIX had a negative effect in the short term, whereas the gold price had a positive and significant correlation in the long term. The impact of the oil price on mineable cryptocurrencies was larger than that on non-mineable cryptocurrencies. This means that alternative energy resources are essential to reduce the dependency of cryptocurrencies on this type of fossil fuel.Öğe The nexus between direct air capture technology and CO2 emissions in the transport sector(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2024) Unal, Emre; Keeley, Alexander Ryota; Kose, Nezir; Chapman, Andrew; Managi, ShunsukeDeploying negative emission technologies has become crucial for limiting the global temperature rise to approximately 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels. DAC technologies are being explored as one of the prospective options. These technologies have been thoroughly investigated as a potential project to capture CO2 emissions and provide purified air, natural gas, or fuel oil. An applied approach, on the other hand, was not taken into consideration while evaluating the influence that this technology has on emissions. For this reason, British Columbia provides a substantial chance to examine emissions that were produced after the DAC actions were put into place in 2015. In this study, the difference-in-differences methodology is employed for the very first time to compare the emissions that are produced by the transport sectors in British Columbia with those emitted by other provinces in Canada. The role that GDP and population play in the release of emissions is also taken into consideration in this paper. Based on the research results, it can be observed that the implementation of DAC initiatives has yielded notable effects. Evidence shows that the DAC effort has led to an average reduction of 0.08 in logarithmic CO2 emissions in the transport sector. By accounting for GDP and population, the empirical results indicate that DAC technology reduced CO2 emissions in British Columbia compared to provinces without DAC facilities. DAC initiatives are expected to become increasingly prevalent between the mid-2030s and 2040s. Overall policy implications suggest that there is a need for DAC technologies to collaborate with alternative mitigation technologies, or alternative technologies should collaborate with DAC technologies that are more efficient to achieve the targeted goals in a short time.Öğe The role of socioeconomic and behavioral factors in HIV-related deaths(Springernature, 2024) Dincer, Metin; Kose, Nezir; Unal, EmreIn today's increasingly interconnected globe, there continues to be a pressing need for thorough research that can shed light on the causes of HIV-related mortality and the primary factors at play in this epidemic. By using an annual dataset, this study analyzed the impact of behavioral risk factors, income, and human capital on HIV-related deaths (HIVD) across all countries and regions. The empirical findings of the panel regression demonstrate that drug use and unsafe sex have a statistically significant and positive effect on HIVD. On the other hand, mean years spent in school and gross national income per capita both have a statistically significant and negative influence on HIVD. The findings of the variance decomposition suggest that drug use should be confronted in wealthy nations to lower HIVD, but both human capital and economic development have a greater influence on the battle against HIVD in underdeveloped and developing countries. In addition, the findings of the panel Granger causality test demonstrate that factors other than unsafe sex can be used as leading indicators in the process of forecasting HIVD. According to these findings, economic variables, as well as behavioral risk factors in emerging nations, and in industrialized countries, should be taken into account when formulating strategies for preventing HIV/AIDS.Öğe The Roles of the Terms of Trade and the Real Exchange Rate in the Current Account Balance(De Gruyter Poland Sp Z O O, 2024) Kose, Nezir; Unal, EmreTurkey has been suffering from a persistent deficit in its current account for decades. The connection between the oil price, the real exchange rate, the terms of trade, industrial production, the foreign direct investments, and the current account balance was investigated by using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The exchange rate and industrial production accounted for the largest explanatory shares in the balance, according to variance decomposition, although their impacts diminished with time. The balance was also strongly influenced by the terms of trade. In the first few months, the oil price had a weak influence on the balance. However, its impact gradually grew over the course of the following periods. The impulse response functions showed that the exchange rate, industrial production, and terms of trade had a positive and significant effect on the current account balance in the short-term. Furthermore, the SVAR model was applied to the time frame before the COVID-19 pandemic. The results indicated that although the basic findings for the exchange rate and industrial production remained unchanged, their explanatory significance for the current account balance decreased. As a consequence, the country must formulate fiscal and monetary strategies that are advantageous in mitigating the impact of these variables on the balance.Öğe Time-varying effects of the gold price and the oil price on imports in Turkey(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2024) Kose, Nezir; Unal, Emre; Gayaker, SavasThe impacts of the gold price, the oil price and the exchange rate on imports are analyzed using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) model. The impulse response functions showed that the impact of oil price shocks on imports continued for a short period of time, whereas that of the gold price became more significant and gave rise to long term effects in later periods. The results reveal important implications for policy makers reducing imports, which stimulates a trade deficit in Turkey.
