Yazar "Ozdemir, Aydogan" seçeneğine göre listele

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    Failure Propagation in Turkish National Power System
    (IEEE, 2014) Saeilailonahar, Keysan; Ozdemir, Aydogan; Kaypmaz, Adnan
    Cascading failures are one of the most important problems in electric power systems. Failure propagation mechanism should be studied to minimize the power loss risk. It is a complex problem and acceptable solutions require improved statistical models. Borel-Tanner distribution is one the recent models used for modeling failure propagation phenomena of cascading failures. This study presents Borel-Tanner modelling based cascading outage propagation for the Thrace part of Turkish National Power Transmission System. 7-year transmission system outage data of the region is used to test the model. Average failure propagation rate of cascading phenomena is calculated from the data. The distribution of total number of line outages is then estimated using the calculated failure propagation rate and initial failure distribution. The same total number of line outages is calculated empirically from the network data and the results are compared with of the branching process.
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    Impact of Adverse Weather Conditions on Outage Statistics of 154 kV Power Transmission System
    (IEEE, 2015) Ozdemir, Aydogan; Bagriyanik, M.; Kaypmaz, A.; Gul, O.; Ilisu, I.
    Failures in a large electric power system comprising several transmission hardware and substation equipment are inevitable. It is clear that the number of annual failures depends on the system topology itself as well as on the environmental conditions. One of the primary reasons of major transmission line outages are severe weather conditions. The stress created by severe weather is much higher than in normal weather and increases with the severity level of the weather, leading to increases in line outage rates. Thrace part of Turkish National Power System is more important from the point of service reliability as being the most industrialized region of the country. This paper is devoted to the quantitative effects of severe weather on the outage statistics of 154 kV Turkish National Power Transmission system of the region. Moreover, a weather dependent failure rate model was proposed for that part of the system.
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    A reliability-transient stability analysis of power systems for protection system conditions
    (IEEE, 2019) Koksal, Aysun; Ozdemir, Aydogan; Mitra, Joydeep
    This study introduces a transient stability-reliability analysis considering the effects of protection system operation. The analysis considers both the deterministic and the probabilistic parameters. Once the protection system conditions and their parameters are identified, deterministic and probabilistic transition rates are used in order to calculate the transient and steady-state reliability measures using the Markov model of the process. Some transient stability parameters of a specific fault in the system, such as critical fault clearing time and oscillation finishing time are used to determine some deterministic transition rates. For reliability analysis, state probabilities, Loss of Load Expectation, Expected Energy Not Served are calculated for several contingency scenarios taking into account the power flow results obtained by Newton - Raphson method. Finally, risk analysis is performed and compared for the aforementioned contingency scenarios. The proposed model is tested on WECC-9 bus system and the results are illustrated.