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    The Asymmetric Effects of the Interest Rate on the Bitcoin Price
    (Charles Univ-Prague, 2023) Kose, Nezir; Unal, Emre
    The news about the US interest rate is expected to cause significant changes in cryptocurrency markets in the 2020s. The asymmetric effects of the interest rate on the Bitcoin price were analyzed by using a SVAR model for the monthly period between January 2012 and October 2022. The selected variables are the VIX, interest rate spread, positive and negative real interest rates, DXY, the gold price, and the oil price. According to the variance decomposition, negative real interest rate shocks created a stronger influence than positive real interest rate shocks on the Bitcoin price. The negative real interest rate shocks became the most explanatory indicator over the period. Impulse response functions indicated that the response of the Bitcoin price to the positive interest rate was insignificant. However, its response to the negative real interest rate became negative and significant only during the mid-term. As a consequence, the negative real interest rate significantly influences the Bitcoin price. The results provide important implications for policymakers, portfolio managers, and investors.
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    The Bitcoin price and Bitcoin price uncertainty: Evidence of Bitcoin price volatility
    (Wiley, 2024) Kose, Nezir; Yildirim, Hakan; Unal, Emre; Lin, Boqiang
    This study examines the Bitcoin price by taking into account global factors, including the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Market Volatility Index (VIX), the US dollar index, the gold price, the oil price, and Bitcoin price volatility. The analysis is conducted using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. The variance decomposition findings revealed that the influence of the VIX on the Bitcoin price was initially restricted, but progressively intensified over time. Among the indicators, Bitcoin price volatility had the highest explanatory share in both daily and weekly data analysis. The impulse response functions demonstrated a statistically significant inverse relationship between the VIX and the Bitcoin price. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that the Bitcoin price was mostly impacted by its own volatility. This implies that investing in Bitcoin requires a certain level of risk-taking.
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    Causal relationships between cryptocurrencies: the effects of sampling interval and sample size
    (Walter De Gruyter Gmbh, 2023) Kose, Nezir; Unal, Emre
    For this paper, the relationship between seventeen popular cryptocurrencies was analyzed by multivariate Granger causality tests and simple linear regression, using data spanning the period 1 September 2020 to 8 December 2021. The novelty of this work is that it studies the effects of sampling interval and sample size in cryptocurrency markets, which can yield significantly different results. Minute-by-minute, hourly and daily data were collected to examine the Granger causality relationship between cryptocurrencies. It was found that all the currencies demonstrated a significant causality relationship when high frequency (such as minute-by-minute) data was used, in contrast to hourly and daily data. The bigger the sample size, the higher the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis. Hence, the null hypothesis for the Granger causality test can be rejected for minute-by-minute time series data because of too large a sample size. Granger causality test results for hourly and daily data indicated that Bitcoin, Ethereum Classic, and Neo were leading indicators among the cryptocurrencies included in the research. In addition, according to simple linear regression analysis, the short term marginal effect of Bitcoin plays an important role by creating significant impacts on other cryptocurrencies.
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    The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey
    (Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2021) Kose, Nezir; Unal, Emre
    The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey were analyzed via a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, using monthly data covering the period between March 1988 and August 2019. The result of variance decomposition indicates that the effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation were limited in the early months but increased over the subsequent months. The labor cost indicates the same -its effect on inflation was limited in the early months but became more significant later. The exchange rate constituted the largest source of changes in inflation, and its impact only slightly decreased in the latter part of the period. According to the result of impulse response functions, the responses of the oil price and exchange rate to inflation were significant in the early months. The response of inflation to labor cost became significant after a few months. The result of this research indicates that following stable economic policies, considering both monetary policy and fiscal policy, provides important dynamics for the control of inflation. Nevertheless, the oil price is an external factor for which alternative ways need to be found in order to reduce its inflationary effect. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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    The impact of the oil price on mineable and non-mineable cryptocurrencies
    (Taylor & Francis Inc, 2023) Unal, Emre; Kose, Nezir
    The digital world has become an inevitable part of daily life. With cryptocurrencies, a new investment opportunity has emerged around the globe. Extending digital life increases the energy demand. These new assets consume a considerable amount of energy resources. The mining process in particular can be significantly affected by energy prices. The purpose of this work is to reveal the impact of the oil price on mineable and non-mineable cryptocurrencies which would provide insight for policymakers, investors, miners, and portfolio managers. This research utilized a panel cointegration model and panel Granger causality tests to the daily data collected between May 11, 2021 and June 23, 2022. 15 mineable and 19 non-mineable cryptocurrencies were selected for the study. Other variables include the oil price, the VIX, and the gold price. The research indicated that there is a negative correlation between the oil price and cryptocurrencies. The VIX had a negative effect in the short term, whereas the gold price had a positive and significant correlation in the long term. The impact of the oil price on mineable cryptocurrencies was larger than that on non-mineable cryptocurrencies. This means that alternative energy resources are essential to reduce the dependency of cryptocurrencies on this type of fossil fuel.
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    Time-varying effects of the gold price and the oil price on imports in Turkey
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2024) Kose, Nezir; Unal, Emre; Gayaker, Savas
    The impacts of the gold price, the oil price and the exchange rate on imports are analyzed using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) model. The impulse response functions showed that the impact of oil price shocks on imports continued for a short period of time, whereas that of the gold price became more significant and gave rise to long term effects in later periods. The results reveal important implications for policy makers reducing imports, which stimulates a trade deficit in Turkey.