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    The Effects of the Oil Price and Temperature on Food Inflation in Latin America
    (SPRINGER, 2022) Köse, Nezir; Ünal, Emre
    The impacts on food prices of temperature, the oil price, the exchange rate and wages in the agricultural industry were examined via a structural vector autoregression model and panel Granger causality test, using monthly data between January 2003 and December 2020 for Latin American countries. The paper concerns how much the determinants afect food prices. Empirical fndings show that the oil price and temperature can be signifcant factors for reducing food infation. According to the result of variance decomposition, in general, a considerable part of food infation was explained by the exchange rate, but its efect did not show any signifcant change in the long term. The impacts of the oil price and temperature were limited in the early months, but they created larger changes over time. Impulse response function and the Granger causality test also indicated that exchange rate was a crucial dynamic in explaining food infation in all countries except Ecuador. This country successfully mitigated the negative efect of the exchange rate, but the oil price and temperature had an impact on food infation. All results indicate that both mon etary and fscal policies are essential to control food prices. These countries can accom plish this by conventional policies or by radical institutional changes. Nevertheless, the oil price and temperature are external dynamics, and crucial in creating alternative policies to control food infation.
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    Risk Factors for Tuberculosis Mortality in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Panel Data Analysis
    (2023) Dinçer, Metin; Özyürek, Berna Akıncı; Köse, Nezir
    Until 2019, tuberculosis ranked first among deaths due to a single infectious agent. In 2021, 50% of deaths due to tuberculosis occurred in African countries. Alcohol use, smoking, and high fasting plasma glucose are risk factors for tuberculosis-related deaths. This study examined the impact of risk factors on tuberculosis-related mortality in Sub-Saharan African countries. Panel data analysis was conducted in the study. The number of deaths due to tuberculosis was used as the dependent variable, while risk factors for tuberculosis deaths were used as independent variables. In the long term, when the number of people drinking alcohol, smoking, and having high fasting plasma glucose rises by 1%, the number of people dying from tuberculosis increases by 0.02%, 0.22%, and 0.66%, respectively. In the short term, when the number of people smoking and high fasting plasma glucose increases rises by 1%, the number of people dying from tuberculosis increases by 0.41% and 0.50% respectively. In this study, the relationship between tuberculosis-related deaths and alcohol use, smoking, and high fasting plasma glucose as risk factors is shown statistically. The more risk factors can be controlled, the less death from tuberculosis will occur in Sub-Saharan African countries.