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    The Effects of the Oil Price and Temperature on Food Inflation in Latin America
    (SPRINGER, 2022) Köse, Nezir; Ünal, Emre
    The impacts on food prices of temperature, the oil price, the exchange rate and wages in the agricultural industry were examined via a structural vector autoregression model and panel Granger causality test, using monthly data between January 2003 and December 2020 for Latin American countries. The paper concerns how much the determinants afect food prices. Empirical fndings show that the oil price and temperature can be signifcant factors for reducing food infation. According to the result of variance decomposition, in general, a considerable part of food infation was explained by the exchange rate, but its efect did not show any signifcant change in the long term. The impacts of the oil price and temperature were limited in the early months, but they created larger changes over time. Impulse response function and the Granger causality test also indicated that exchange rate was a crucial dynamic in explaining food infation in all countries except Ecuador. This country successfully mitigated the negative efect of the exchange rate, but the oil price and temperature had an impact on food infation. All results indicate that both mon etary and fscal policies are essential to control food prices. These countries can accom plish this by conventional policies or by radical institutional changes. Nevertheless, the oil price and temperature are external dynamics, and crucial in creating alternative policies to control food infation.
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    The Growth Model of the Automotive Industry in Türkiye: An Input-Output Analysis via the Hypothetical Extraction Method
    (2024) Ünal, Emre; Polat, Ali Yavuz; Köse, Nezir
    Purpose: The objective of this research was to ascertain if the portion of the automotive industry that engages in non-tradable goods or export goods is the principal driving force behind the industry's expansion. The purpose of this paper is to fill the gap by focusing on the automotive industry as its principal area of investigation. Methodology: Productivity growth in the automotive industry was estimated utilizing an innovative hypothetical extraction method (HEM) for both the non-tradable goods sector and the export goods sector. Following that, the weighted multipliers approach is employed to allocate the productivity across the non-tradable goods and export goods of the automotive industry. Findings: The findings indicate that the automotive industry maintains a strategy of development driven by exports. Production targeted for the domestic market is subject to significant limitations. Multinational automobile corporations tend to employ the strategy of exporting. The growth model of the automotive industry is significantly influenced by various institutional elements, including the Customs Union, taxes, and vertical integration. Originality: Although the automotive industry is an essential industry for exports, its growth model has not been comprehensively scrutinized. This study primarily focuses on investigating the growth model of the Turkish automotive industry and the institutional factors that influenced its strategic decisions.
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    The Impact of the Interest Rate on Industrial Production During the 2008 Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic
    (2024) Köse, Nezir; Ünal, Emre
    The impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth in developed and developing countries was analyzed during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Panel data analysis was implemented for the monthly period between January 2002 and December 2020. The impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth was negative for both developed and developing countries in all periods. Moreover, during the 2008 financial crisis, the relationship between the real interest rate and industrial production growth was negative for both developed and developing countries. However, the effect of the real interest rate was stronger in developed countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth has been much stronger than that of the 2008 financial crisis. Its effect has also been more significant in developed countries. The result indicates that during the crisis and the pandemic, a decrease in the real interest rate plays an important role in stimulating industrial production. Pulling the real interest rate down can be an effective tool for promoting growth and can lessen negative consequences in economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, as the inflation rate is very low in developed countries, the risk of depreciation in the exchange rate in developing countries can be limited following expansionary monetary policy. Hence, other alternatives such as government intervention into economic activities by fiscal policy increase in importance beside monetary policy.