A Hierarchical Cluster-Based Fuzzy Rainfall-Runoff Model

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Beykent Üniversitesi

Erişim Hakkı


The estimation of the flows originate from rainfalls in streams is required for designing and sustainable operations of hydraulic structures. The developed models to answer this requirement are named as rainfall-runoff models. The transformation of rainfall to runoff cannot be easily determined with simple models, because many hydrological parameters yields internal uncertainties vary with respect to area and time and these uncertainties cannot be easily represented by simple models. The simple modeling of this transformation, the classical regression analysis which has wide application area. Unfortunately, in the classical regression analysis the internal uncertainties cannot be taken into consideration. In this study, a cluster-based fuzzy system model by using hierarchical clustering algorithm was developed as an alternative to the classical regression approach in the rainfall-runoff relationship. The developed model was applied to the runoff estimation by using the rainfall-runoff records of Köprüçay river basin. It was concluded that the new established clusterbased fuzzy system model yields less forecasting error than the classical regression approach and so, it is recommended that it can be used for the real time runoff estimation in the future.


Anahtar Kelimeler

Fuzzy system model, Regression analysis, Hierarchical clustering algorithm, Köprüçay river basin, Real-time runoff forecasting


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Journal of Science and Technology 3 (2), 2009, 253 – 266