Ekonomik büyümenin seçilmiş risk göstergeleriyle analizi: Türkiye örneği
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2020
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
İstanbul Beykent Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Sağlık hizmetleri, gıda üretimi, ortalama insan ömrü, teknolojik gelişimeler, hanehalkı refah seviyesinin artması gibi birçok önemli faktör ekonomik büyümeyle ilişkilidir. Bu yüzden ekonomik büyüme ülkeler için en öncelikli hedeflerden biri olmaktadır. Son yıllarda oldukça şiddetlenen ticaret savaşları, ülkelerin yüksek borçları, Brexit süreci, İtalya'nın borç durumu, ABD'nin yavaşlayan ekonomisi, Çin ve ABD arasındaki ticaret gerilimi ve son olarak da Covid-19 salgını gibi birçok faktör küresel riskleri oldukça arttırmış ve bu riskler ülkelerin ekonomik büyümelerini yakından etkiler hale gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'ye ait Reel GSYİH ile Türkiye'nin CDS Primi, Türkiye Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi ve Türkiye Belirsizlik Endeksi arasındaki ilişki ampirik olarak test edilmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı ekonomik büyümeyle ilişkisi olan risk faktörlerinin tespit edilerek ilişkilerinin yönü ve kuvvetini ortaya koymaktır. Söz konusu risk göstergelerinin ekonomik büyümeyle olan ilişkilerini tespit etmek için 2008Ç1 ve 2019Ç3 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak VAR modeli uygulanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda; Türkiye'ye ait Reel GSYİH, Türkiye CDS Primi, Türkiye Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi ve Türkiye Belirsizlik Endeksi arasında uzun dönemli ilişkiler tespit edilmiştir. Türkiye'nin ekonomik büyümesinin jeopolitik risklerden ve CDS primlerinden doğrudan, belirsizliklerden ise dolaylı olarak etkilendiği belirlenmiştir. İncelenen risk göstergeleri arasında ekonomik büyümeyi en fazla etkileyen unsur CDS primleri ve sonrasında ise jeopolitik risklerdir.
Many important factors are related to economic growth, such as health care, food production, average human life, technological developments, and increased household welfare. Therefore, economic growth has been one of the top priorities for countries. Many factors such as trade wars that have been exacerbated in recent years, high debts of countries, Brexit process, Italy's debt situation, USA's slowing economy, trade tension between China and the USA and finally Covid-19 outbreak have increased the global risks and it has affected the economic growth of countries closely. In this study, Turkey's CDS premium with real GDP of Turkey, Turkey Geopolitical Risk Index and tested empirically relations between Turkey Uncertainty Index. The aim of the study is to identify the risk factors associated with economic growth and to reveal the direction and strength of their relations. In order to determine the relationship of these risk indicators with economic growth, the VAR model was applied using the data from 2008Q1 and 2019Q3. As a result of the analysis; Real GDP of Turkey, Turkey CDS premium, long-term relations between Turkey and Turkey Geopolitical Risk Index Uncertainty Index has been determined. Geopolitical risks and CDS premiums Turkey's economic growth provides the direct effects and the indirect effect of uncertainty. Among the risk indicators examined, CDS premiums and geopolitical risks are the factors that affect economic growth the most.
Many important factors are related to economic growth, such as health care, food production, average human life, technological developments, and increased household welfare. Therefore, economic growth has been one of the top priorities for countries. Many factors such as trade wars that have been exacerbated in recent years, high debts of countries, Brexit process, Italy's debt situation, USA's slowing economy, trade tension between China and the USA and finally Covid-19 outbreak have increased the global risks and it has affected the economic growth of countries closely. In this study, Turkey's CDS premium with real GDP of Turkey, Turkey Geopolitical Risk Index and tested empirically relations between Turkey Uncertainty Index. The aim of the study is to identify the risk factors associated with economic growth and to reveal the direction and strength of their relations. In order to determine the relationship of these risk indicators with economic growth, the VAR model was applied using the data from 2008Q1 and 2019Q3. As a result of the analysis; Real GDP of Turkey, Turkey CDS premium, long-term relations between Turkey and Turkey Geopolitical Risk Index Uncertainty Index has been determined. Geopolitical risks and CDS premiums Turkey's economic growth provides the direct effects and the indirect effect of uncertainty. Among the risk indicators examined, CDS premiums and geopolitical risks are the factors that affect economic growth the most.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ekonomi, Economics
